Hmmm,
I don't see a connection for that URL, either. Which makes me think your Jetpack is not working (as you suspected).
Can you do the following:
*Go to admin → Jetpack
*At the bottom of the page, there’s a link called “Debug”. Click that link.
*Some arcane debugging information should appear. Copy and paste that information to us.
I’m particularly interested in the line that starts with “CERT”.
Additionally, you should switch your theme temporarily to Twenty Eleven and turn off any other plugins you have while we get your Jetpack correctly configured.
Sorry for all the extra rigamarole!